AI-Powered Demand Forecasting
Understanding demand is foundational to every retail decision. Our AI de-tangles what drives demand—separating trend, seasonality, and price effects—so you can make better decisions on pricing, inventory, and planning.
Isolating Price Elasticity from Other Effects
Contextual Factors Include:
Month, Week, Age of Product, Category, Brand, Discounts, Material, Quality Tier, and more
Isolating Price Elasticity from Other Effects
Contextual Factors Include:
Month, Week, Age of Product, Category, Brand, Discounts, Material, Quality Tier, and more
Understand What Truly Drives Demand
Most forecasting tools treat demand as a black box. Our AI decomposes demand into its fundamental components: the underlying trend (your in-going business trajectory), seasonal factors (calendar-driven patterns), and price effects (how discounts affect volume). This clarity enables better decisions across pricing, planning, and inventory.
- Trend: The near-term, in-going business trajectory without seasonal noise
- Seasonality: Holiday calendars, weather patterns, day-of-week effects
- Price Effects: How regular price changes and promotions affect volume
- Clear separation enables targeted interventions for each driver
Separate Price-Driven Demand from Organic Demand
Understanding price elasticity is critical for both forecasting and pricing. Our AI calculates how each product responds to price changes, separating the demand that comes from promotional activity from the underlying organic demand. This prevents over-forecasting during promotions and under-forecasting at regular price.
- Regular price elasticity: How everyday price changes affect demand
- Promotional elasticity: How discounts and promotions drive incremental volume
- Cross-elasticity: How pricing one product affects demand for related items
- Use elasticity insights to optimize pricing and forecast promotional lifts
Demand Response to Price Changes
Insight: AI calculates unique elasticity for each product. High elastic products (like commodities) are very price-sensitive, while low elastic products (like necessities) respond less to price changes—enabling precise pricing strategies for every item.
Actual vs. Predicted Demand
MAPE
1.4%
Hit Rate
94%
Bias
+1.2%
Calendar, Weather, and Event Effects
Demand doesn't happen in a vacuum. Our AI incorporates rich contextual data—holiday calendars, weather patterns, local events, and even social media trends—to understand and predict demand fluctuations. This contextual intelligence makes forecasts more accurate and actionable.
- Holiday calendars: Christmas, Easter, Back-to-School, regional events
- Weather patterns: Temperature, precipitation, seasonal transitions
- Product lifecycle: New product launch curves, end-of-life decline
- External factors: Economic indicators, market trends, competitive activity
Product Characteristics That Affect Demand
Different product attributes create different demand patterns. A winter coat behaves differently than a summer dress. Premium brands follow different patterns than value brands. Our AI understands how size, color, material, brand, and age of product affect demand—enabling accurate forecasts even for new products.
- Material and color: Seasonal patterns vary by product characteristics
- Brand and price tier: Premium vs value products show different elasticities
- Product age: Lifecycle stage affects both level and trend of demand
- Category dynamics: Each category has unique demand drivers and patterns
Isolating Price Elasticity from Other Effects
Contextual Factors Include:
Month, Week, Age of Product, Category, Brand, Discounts, Material, Quality Tier, and more
Actual vs. Predicted Demand
MAPE
1.4%
Hit Rate
94%
Bias
+1.2%
Measure and Improve Prediction Quality
Forecast accuracy isn't just about low error rates—it's about understanding uncertainty and managing bias. Our AI provides comprehensive accuracy metrics, confidence intervals, and continuous improvement tracking. Know exactly how much to trust each forecast and plan accordingly.
- MAPE, Bias, and Hit Rate metrics for every product and category
- Confidence intervals show the range of likely outcomes
- Continuous model retraining as new data arrives
- Accuracy tracking over time to demonstrate improvement
How It Works
Connect Your Data
We securely ingest your transaction history, inventory data, promotions, and external data sources
AI Learns Your Patterns
Our models analyze historical data to understand trend, seasonality, and price sensitivity for every product
Decompose Demand Drivers
AI separates what drives demand into distinct components: base trend, calendar effects, and price response
Generate Accurate Forecasts
Receive forecasts that account for all drivers, with confidence intervals and accuracy metrics
Frequently Asked Questions
Understand What Drives Your Demand
Stop treating demand as a black box. With Hallon's AI-powered forecasting, you'll understand exactly what drives demand—and use that insight to make better pricing, planning, and inventory decisions.